Putin advisers mislead Russian leader about Ukraine war status, UK intelligence says – POLITICO

Russian President Vladimir Putin is being lied to by his advisers in regards to the efficiency of Russian forces in Ukraine as Moscow’s navy offensive flounders, in accordance with new assessments by U.Okay. and U.S. intelligence businesses.

Addressing the Australian National University on Thursday, Jeremy Fleming, director of GCHQ, Britain’s intelligence, cyber and safety company, mentioned: “We believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime.”

Fleming added that Putin’s choice to invade Ukraine had confirmed to be an immense miscalculation and that he “overestimated” the power of Russia’s military.

“It increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation. It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He underestimated the strength of the coalition his actions would galvanize. He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He overestimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory,” Fleming mentioned.

The director of British intelligence went on to say that Russia’s navy management has descended into chaos, and that Putin’s marketing campaign is “beset by problems — low morale, logistical failures and high Russian casualty numbers. Their command and control is in chaos.”

He added that Russian troopers have mutinied: “We’ve seen Russian soldiers — short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.”

Fleming slammed Putin’s disinformation marketing campaign which targets freedom of speech in Russia: “We’ve seen Putin lie to his own people in an attempt to hide military incompetence,” including “and all of that means, he seeks brutal control of the media and access to the internet, he seeks the closing down of opposition voices, and he’s making heavy investment in their propaganda and covert agencies.”

Fleming was cautious on whether or not Russia is real about scaling again a few of its assaults, as introduced by Russian negotiators in Istanbul on Tuesday.

“This week, the Russian MOD stated publicly that they will drastically reduce combat operations around Kyiv and a city in the north. It looked like they have been forced to make a significant change. But then they proceeded to launch attacks in both of those places. Mixed messages or deliberate misinformation — we’ll have to see how it unfolds,” he mentioned.

The revelation continues the Western technique of declassifying intelligence with a view to expose the inner workings of the Kremlin. Both the U.S. and U.Okay. intelligence businesses have repeatedly made public delicate info each within the lead as much as battle and publish invasion. “It is already a remarkable feature of this conflict just how much intelligence has been so quickly declassified to get ahead of Putin’s actions. In my view, intelligence is only worth collecting if we use it, so I unreservedly welcome this development,” Fleming mentioned.

On the opposite facet of the Atlantic, the White House Director of Communications Kate Bedingfield shared the British evaluation, and mentioned: “We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.” Bedingfield added that it was “increasingly clear” the battle had been a “strategic blunder” that would depart it weaker over the long run.

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